National Air Traffic Services (NATS) are concerned with ensuring low probabilities of errors in determining aircraft positions. In general, error probabilities depend on the tails of some probability distributions for which there has been no theoretical model. Analysis of radar performance is regularly undertaken by NATS to ensure radar performance is within safety limits, with the maximum range being dependent on the declared separation between aircraft. NATS brought two questions to the Study Group, involving the horizontal (azimuthal) errors in radar data and the vertical errors in altimetry system data. In both cases, NATS asked the Study Group to analyse the data and assess whether the probability distributions that are currently used are good models for the errors.

Problem presented by
Keith Slater, NATS

Study Group contributors
Chris Budd (University of Bath)
Jeff Dewynne
Andrew Hill (University of Bath)
Sam Howison (University of Oxford)
André Léger (University of Bath)
Henrik Petersen (Maersk Institute, SDU)
Colin Please (University of Southampton)
Jonathan Rougier (University of Durham)