A “Triad” is one of the three half-hour periods in the winter that have the highest national electricity demand. The charges levied on commercial users of electricity, for the whole of the winter, depend strongly on their consumption during Triad periods. In order to help its customers reduce these costs, British Energy (in common with other large electricity suppliers) attempts to forecast when Triads will occur and warn customers, who can then reduce their consumption during these periods. However, the very act of warning customers reduces the overall consumption and this may prevent a putative Triad from actually occurring. The Study Group was asked to consider whether this “negative feedback” problem could be prevented.

Problem presented by
Stephen Custance-Baker, British Energy

Study Group contributors
Joyce Aitchison (JMA Numerics)
John Billingham (University of Nottingham)
John Byatt-Smith (University of Edinburgh)
Liam Clarke (London School of Economics)
Jeff Dewynne (University of Oxford)
Kim Evans (University of Nottingham)
Vera Hazelwood (Smith Institute)
Sam Howison (University of Oxford)
Robert Hunt (University of Cambridge)